BIG NIGHT: 2026 Oscar Predictions

Enough hairspray and aftershave to satisfy a glue sniffer have been purchased in Hollywood tonight in preparation of The Big One. It's the end of the actor’s year and the start of the long night to ego death or over-rehearsed speeches. I do wonder what actors do in the morning? What do they have, or have not, for breakfast? How successful was the facial cleanse last night? What will Conan O’Brien say about their movie? How convincing is their fake laugh?

But for the rest of us, the less practiced normals, it’s the night to tick off your predictions so you can boast to your friends. For the last couple of years I’ve been predicting the Academy Awards and trying to explain to my close ones my reasonings-they don’t care, so I’ve subjected you to be at the end of my rant. I’ve been sitting on my guesses for the last three months and, not to brag, but I got the nominations 80% correct.

I think there are four possible outcomes for tonight. Three sweeps, or a free for all. One Battle After Another, Hamnet and Sinners being the front runners for the sweeps of the “Big Five”, and the technical awards being split across the other films. I’ve predicted what I think will win, against the grain of sweeps.

So, let’s get on with it.

BEST PICTURE

One Battle After Another

Timely, with solid comedy, fantastic performances and an 'all-time' director should be enough to get this over the line. If we look at where the Academy voters also vote, amongst the other Guilds, OBAA is surely the front runner. Of course, we need to mention Hamnet and Sinners. The Academy has been growing in its attitude and appreciation to horror films, and a horror/action film like Sinners is surely an underdog in the same way that Anora was last year. Hamnet; however, could be that case where it’s just too Oscar-y: too much crying and snot and costumes and shirtless Mescal for the Academy. They no longer like to be baited by films boasting two fantastic leads with the main goal being to make the audience cry.

If we think about how OBAA makes the audience react, it’s a large spectrum, from laughter to terror to bizarreness. That, as well as how ICE has been operating around the time of the release and to this day getting more and more violent, and the secret societies in the movie, the Academy might be seduced by the massively coincidental timing and truly stellar performances. And I would pay for a sequel where Sean Penn walks around for an hour and a half and talks about how he’s definitely not gay.

LEAD ACTOR

Micheal B Jordan - Sinners

Well, well, well. Here we are again. T. Chalamet has been nominated for another overpromoted film, with the timing of controversial statements, obsession and baby blue eyes. But this time, he shares the stage with five contenders. Leonardi DiCaprio, who many are loving, I think is playing a character too similar to previous idiotic, semi-useless men. Ethan Hawke as the wonderfully vulnerable Lorenze Hart in his kindred spirits’ (Linklaters) Blue Moon. Wagner Moura’s intimate and engrosing work in underdog The Secret Agent and of course, Chalamet’s big rival in Micheal B Jordan’s twin role as Short and Stack in Sinners.

Every one of those has a reason to win, everyone loves Leo, Hawke’s never won and Moura’s Cannes-sweeping Secret Agent might have got every predictor on the lurch; however, it could be split between the two. Is Chalamet still be too young, too hip. does he want it just too bad? Jordan has been on the outskirts of the Academy for just long enough. While Chalamet has been in your face with his talent, being on every talk show under the sun, Jordan has kept composed. If we look at quality, it could be either, but for the award, my prediction is Jordan. 

LEAD ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

Come on. Come on. Strangely, the Lead Actress award has not been a hotbed of competition over the last couple of years. It has become the upset category, Madison last year, Emma Stone the previous one, if you are following along with that pattern, the award could be Rose Byrnes’, or even Kate Hudson's- with a small mention to the Danish Reinsve as the Academy is slowly becoming more European. But those awards were shocking because of how split the lead up to the Oscars was. While Demi Moore’s Substance was a surefire hit, the indie awards were all going to Mikey. It has been simply a barn-storming year for Jessie Buckley. With no competition, it has to be her, it’s the only award I’m certain of.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Delroy Lindo - Sinners

Now this is where it gets interesting. Delroy Lindo in Sinners was not nominated in any other major film festival or for any other awards, making his the real underdog story. Lindo has been in the industry a long time, with many memories tied to him. This directly clashes with the other four stories. I didn’t predict Lindo for the nomination and had to scramble my predictions after the news. Beforehand, I was sure it would go to Stellan Skarsgard’s best performance in Sentimental Value. It’s the perfect story, a beloved but often overlooked industry standard, winning a supporting role for an indie picture, we’ve seen it before. I also think Sean Penn could get it, a scenery-chewing role that always lights up the screen whenever he's in OBAA, or maybe even the subtly beauty of Del Toro’s finest performance in the last couple of years. It could even go to Elordi’s complete transformation in Frankenstein. But now it’s all Lindo-A-Go. His only challenge could be Skarsgard.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Madigan - Weapons

We all thought Weapons would pick up a few more nominations, the genre bending story nabbed just the one, and it’s for Madigan. The Academy does love a larger-than-life camp performance, and Madigan’s got that in spades. She is utterly terrifying and magnetic. Her main competitor? The woman who has won all four US televised awards ceremonies - Teyonna Taylor. My main thought as to why I chose Madigan over Taylor is Madigan’s shadow is larger over Weapons than Taylor's. OBAA has fantastic performances from everyone, for the better and worse as they might outshine her. On the back of the historic announcement (most Oscar Nominations ever), Sinners always deserves a shout as Mosaku took the BAFTA home.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

SINNERS

The only other certain lock in. It’s won all it can up to now, and no one can challenge the thrill ride.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

OBBA

Funny, heart-filled and timely. Written by one of the greats, say less.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

FRANKENSTEIN

The academy doesn’t like Guillermo Del Toro, but they do love how his movies look. It’s another gothic masterpiece; the others might not have built enough to win it but this one could.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

MARTY SUPREME

No two-hour panic attack looks this good. The grading, the lighting, the handheld and even the insemination scene is a pleasure to look at.

COSTUME DESIGN

FRANKENSTEIN

While the down-south suits of Sinners and the straps-turned bras of Avatar: Fire and Ash both are beautiful, pick any frame from Frankenstein and it’ll be gorgeously tailored.

EDITING

MARTY SUPREME

Another interesting category as the five nominations range from all genres and styles. The slow and thought-provoking Sentimental Value, the thriller of OBAA (specifically the now iconic hill scene), the pure adrenaline of F1 (of course, the car film is nominated) and the horror elements and the building dread of Sinners all are worthy, but this is Benny Safdie’s speciality, once the pain starts, don’t let it stop until it sings.

MAKE UP AND HAIR STYLING

KOKUHO

The beautiful tradition shown on that screen is simply incredible and while Make Up over the last ten years has become a predictor of the Actor awards, think Substance last year or The Whale, Elordi’s eight hour make up process could be left dry.

SOUND

F1

Car go zoom. No other film have car go zoom. F1 has car go zoom.

VFX

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH

Avatar's back.

ORIGINAL SCORE

SINNERS

It’s beautiful to listen to. How the guitar twangs turn to larger orchestration, simply stunning in IMAX, and how little music there was in Sinners’s competitors. Half of Hamnet was Max Richter’s best hits. OBAA was pensive but not integral enough to the story.

CASTING

HAMNET

And the new one. The new award that everyone is hungry to take first. It goes to Hamnet because, while Sinners is accomplished in finding a fresh face villain in Jack O’Connell, I don’t think I’ve seen a performance by a child this good since that Vine of the Kid that got an Avocado. “Thaaanks”.